GreenTech: Innovation Forces, Trends and Technologies - Part I

Sustainable Technology, Trends and Key Information Points

Nov 29, 2023

A. The Technological Trends behind Green-Tech

This is Part 1 of 3 in a series looking at technological trends that are driving the adoption of sustainable and green-technology across various industries.

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Highly Impacted Sectors: Given the way that the trajectory of sustainable/green-technologies has played out with respect to its impact on the different industry sectors, there are some predominant sectors that are being impacted to a greater extent than others, such as the Energy industry (with 12 trends driving it); Agriculture & Food is a close second with 10 factors driving the growth; Building Construction and Environment/Wildlife Protection should also see strong growth through the advancement of sustainable tech with 7 trends each. Both Manufacturing and Logistics/Mobility, show moderate signs of growth from this, each having 4 trends driving each of them.

Underlying Tech: In terms of the underlying technology that is driving each of the trends (the ever-present question of ‘what trends drive the trends?’) advancements in AI, genetic engineering, carbon capture, IoT and wind energy seem to be key determinants here.

With that, let’s begin to delve into each of the trends, per se.

Value chain decarbonization in the mobility industry

Key technologies / innovations driving the trend: Green Materials
Emissions reduction in the mobility and vehicle industry is attributed to decarbonization across the entire value chain.1
Advancements in green primary materials, including technologies like green steel, carbon-reduced production, green aluminum, and green plastics, are driving sustainability in the mobility sector.2
A 2020 McKinsey report estimates that 29% of material emissions can be cost-effectively reduced by 2030, with a significant focus on aluminum and plastics, comprising 60% of the targeted reductions.3
Measures like recycled aluminum, innovative smelting technologies, and the use of green electricity have the potential to cut emissions from aluminum production by an impressive 73%. Take for instance, the fact that during 2019-2020, coal-fired electricity used in aluminum electrolysis produced a staggering 636 million tons of CO₂ emissions, or 58 percent of the sector’s carbon footprint.4
Utilizing recycled materials, particularly polypropylene and polyethylene in non-visible vehicle parts can yield a 34% reduction in emissions from plastic production.5
Scaling nylon recycling technologies could lead to a substantial 92% decrease in total plastics emissions.6

(Source: McKinsey, 2020)

Despite potential additional costs, adopting technologies such as electric arc furnaces and direct reduced iron for steel production could offer long-term scalability and emissions abatement.7
Parts circularity is emphasized, with a focus on reusing and refurbishing modules or parts, reducing the need for new parts production as vehicles reach the end of their life cycle.
Lightweight materials, including advanced composites, ceramics, metamaterials, and nanomaterials, contribute significantly to improving fuel efficiency in the industry.

Transportation Demand Management for Cities:

Key technologies / innovations driving the trend: Increasing adoption of Transportation Demand Management (TDM)
New hardware (for example, breakthroughs in ICT) and advanced digital solutions are pivotal in the widespread adoption of alternative transportation modes in urban areas, with a particular emphasis on shared mobility.
The shift towards alternative forms of transportation is actively replacing gas-powered vehicles in cities. These two aspects are driven by key some key facets worth noticing. According to a study, the willingness of people to shift to alternative modes of transport as opposed to personal vehicles was rather surprising. For instance:
- Almost one-third of respondents (30 percent) planned to increase their use of micromobility or shared mobility over the next decade.
- Nearly one-half of respondents (46 percent) were open to replacing their private vehicles with other modes of transport in the coming decade.
- Most respondents (70 percent) were willing to use a shared autonomous shuttle with up to three other travelers; 42 percent of those trips would otherwise be taken by private vehicle.
The concept of 'smart mobility' is embodied in solutions like Transportation Demand Management (TDM), which strives to optimize local transportation resources to encourage the adoption of more efficient and sustainable commuting methods.
TDM applications extend to providing Mobility-as-a-Service, creating an integrated commuter experience that spans public transport, ride-sharing, and micro-mobility.8
Congestion pricing based on traffic is introduced as part of TDM, serving as a tool to manage and alleviate urban traffic issues.9
The evolution of TDM strategies could lead to significant investments in innovative mobility services, including robo-taxis and purpose-built vehicles10 designed for enhanced durability, specifically tailored for shared mobility scenarios.

Lithium-ion, sodium-ion and potassium-ion batteries advances for the mobility sector

Key technologies / innovations driving the trend: New kinds of batteries (Sodium, Potassium etc.)
The electrification of vehicles is currently in progress, witnessing a significant rise in the market share of fully electric vehicles (EVs).

(Overview of a top-level geographical breakdown of EV car sales)

Despite this progress, there remains a substantial room for improvement in solutions that replace traditional vehicle components with electricity-based alternatives.
Lithium-ion batteries (Li-ion) stand out as a notably efficient advancement in battery technology, playing a pivotal role in the ongoing electrification efforts.
Challenges associated with sourcing lithium for batteries have led to increased exploration of alternative battery technologies, such as sodium-ion (Na-ion) and potassium-ion (K-ion) batteries. (though K-ion batteries remain at an extremely early stage of the research cycle)
A noteworthy frontier in battery technology is the emerging field of battery analytics, where the application of intelligence is utilized to extend battery life, enhance manufacturing processes, tap into end-of-life markets, and prevent safety hazards.
The integration of battery analytics has the potential to be invaluable in promoting the sustainability of the automotive and assembly sector by addressing key issues and optimizing various aspects of battery usage and production.

New propulsion system technologies driving electrification of mobility

Key technologies / innovations driving the trend: Hydrogen Fuel-Cells + Hybrid Propulsion
Efficiency and sustainability gains can be achieved through the exploration of new propulsion systems, including hydrogen fuel cells.11
At the moment, the system capital cost and hydrogen production cost are still not competitive for the wide-scale introduction of hydrogen to the industrial deployments. Moreover, the consumption of water and rare materials have limited the development from the aspect of sustainability.12
Hybrid propulsion systems represent another avenue for improvement, involving the combination of multiple propulsion sources.

Intelligent land and crop management

Key technologies / innovations driving the trend: Internet of Things
Sensors linked through the Internet of Things (IoT) herald a transformative era in intelligent land and crop management. Effectively, ‘Agriculture 4.0’.
IoT data for precise fertilization and water management, contributing to a significant reduction in carbon emissions.
The agricultural sector, while a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, is also a victim of climate change, emphasizing its critical role in global food security.
Recognizing the dual nature of agriculture, programs directly impacting resource and input efficiency are imperative for long-term sustainability.
Sensors collecting real-time, accurate information on soil conditions become pivotal tools, buoyed by real-time data empowering efficient use of natural resources like water, agricultural inputs such as seeds and fertilizers, and labor in activities like harvesting and trimming.
Harnessing the potential of sensor data emerges as a key strategy in navigating the complexities of agricultural sustainability.

Improvements in heating, cooling and cooking for net-zero emissions

Key technologies / innovations driving the trend: Net-zero emissions HVAC
Mitigating carbon emissions (of building construction) from heating, cooling, and cooking fuels necessitates widespread adoption of net-zero emissions HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) systems.
The shift towards sustainability will require embracing passive solar environmental systems as a crucial component in the drive for reduced carbon impact.
Adoption of 'greener' building materials plays a pivotal role in achieving energy efficiency and diminishing reliance on HVAC systems.
Renewable timbers and low-carbon cement emerge as potential allies in the pursuit of sustainable building practices.
The overarching trend connects advancements in consumer electronics with the infrastructure itself, emphasizing a holistic approach to environmental sustainability.

New materials to reduce carbon footprint of building construction

Key technologies / innovations driving the trend: Renewable Timbers + Low-carbon cement + Advanced Composites & Ceramics
Escalating demand exists for novel materials in building construction that actively diminish the carbon footprint.
Renewable timbers and, notably, low-carbon cement emerge as pivotal elements in addressing the carbon impact of construction.
The integration of low-carbon and durable materials holds the promise of not only reducing construction footprints but also enhancing energy efficiency in heating and cooling processes.
Advanced composites, characterized by polymer matrix composites with exceptional strength or stiffness, stand out as promising contenders for sustainable building practices.
Ceramics, particularly carbon-fibre-reinforced plastics with the potential to substitute steel, present another avenue for groundbreaking advancements in reducing the carbon footprint of construction.

Nitrogen fixation increasing crops productivity

Key technologies / innovations driving the trend: Engineered nitrogen fixation13
Staple food crops such as corn and cereals depend on inorganic nitrogen from the soil for fertilization.
Biologically, legume plants, such as soy and beans, possess the remarkable ability to produce their own nitrogen. This is achieved through a symbiotic relationship with soil bacteria. Legume roots interact with soil bacteria, resulting in the colonization of roots and the formation of specialized organs known as nodules. The intricate process of nodule formation involves intimate molecular communication between soil bacteria and legume roots. Researchers explore innovative avenues by attempting to engineer nitrogen fixation, a process inherent in legumes, into non-legume plants.
The goal, then, is to boost crop productivity by coaxing cereal roots to engage in a symbiotic interaction with nitrogen-fixing bacteria, essentially creating a natural fertilizer effect.

Natural Materials for 3D Printing

Key technologies / innovations driving the trend: 3D Building Printing + Enlarged scope of materials compatible.
Utilizing 3D printing technology for house construction, particularly with local and natural materials, holds the promise of reducing construction complexity,costs, and energy consumption.14
UN estimates indicate that employing 3D printers to construct houses could address the significant global challenge of inadequate housing for approximately 1.6 billion people. Estimates from WEF and World Bank seem to back this as well.
Several successful 3D printing housing projects have been implemented, showcasing the viability of this innovative construction method.
Construction materials like concrete, sand, plastics, and binders are transported to the building site and extruded through a large-scale 3D printer, highlighting the versatility of this technology. Some tech is even able to use waste materials to undertake this exercise.
The simplicity and affordability of 3D printing make it an attractive solution for mitigating housing shortages, particularly in remote and impoverished areas.
Despite its potential, the lack of infrastructure for material transportation along with high initial costs of the equipment have been limiting factors (which may still experience a drop given large-scale adoption), hindering the widespread use of 3D printing technology in the construction industry.

Distributed energy generation and storage for increasing EV power consumption

Key technologies / innovations driving the trend: Distributed Energy Resources15 + Distributed Ledger Technologies + Artificial Intelligence + Internet of Things
Energy generation and storage systems proximate to the point of use are poised to align with + capitalize on the rising demand for electricity and the expansion of electric vehicle infrastructure.
A spectrum of enabling technologies16, including fuel cells, microturbines, reciprocating engines, load reduction, and electronic interfaces, are instrumental in transforming the generation and transmission of power. On the consumer side / demand side, factors such as increased electricity demand, individual consumer control, and the pursuit of cleaner fuel are driving the development and adoption of these technologies.
The current landscape involves the utilization of natural gas and renewable energies in these distributed energy systems. On the flip side, emergence of distributed energy resources poses a potential challenge to conventional power plants, prompting the need for collaboration and partnerships to benefit both suppliers and consumers.
Integrating distributed energy resources into existing grids holds the potential to address issues related to grid reliability and predictability.17

Perovskite photovoltaic cells for increased efficiency and as housing material

Key technologies / innovations driving the trend: Next-Generation Photovoltaic Cells
Next-generation photovoltaic cells (PVs) crafted from perovskite hold the promise of elevating panel efficiency and optimizing payback time.
Beyond traditional solar panels, perovskite-based PVs offer potential applications in designing sophisticated housing materials, including high-transmittance windows.
Perovskite, sharing its crystal structure with calcium titanium oxide, provides the opportunity for cost-effective, low-temperature manufacturing of lightweight, ultrathin, and flexible solar cells.
By strategically layering perovskite over existing silicon panels, the technology allows for the absorption of different wavelengths of light, potentially boosting the efficiency of the panels by up to 30%.
The adaptability of perovskite-based PVs extends across various fields, spanning from automotive and consumer electronics to construction makes the integration of perovskite in photovoltaic technology a pioneering step towards increased efficiency, flexibility, and diverse applications in energy and materials innovation.18

Ionic liquids and molten salts to replace volatile organic compounds

Key technologies / innovations driving the trend: Ionic Liquids19
Ionic liquids and molten salts are emerging as a promising and environmentally friendly alternative for energy storage, transportation, and as reaction mediums in bio-based chemical production.
One of the key attributes is the tailorable nature of these substances, making them versatile for various applications in the energy and chemical sectors.
Ionic liquids serve as a potential replacement for volatile organic solvents, aligning with the objectives of the EU REACH Regulation to phase out such solvents.
Ionic liquids exhibit distinctive properties, including negligible vapor pressure, high thermal and electrotechnical stability, high ionic conductivity, and significant solvency for a wide range of materials, spanning organic, inorganic, and polymeric substances.

C. The Research Sources

This section contains a list of the different reports, research studies, and articles that were taken into account for curating the set of technological trends covered under the GreenTech sector: